# Forecourt Prism — Volume Forecast Analytics

> Synthetic forecourt-volume forecasting with weekday-shrunk baselines and missing-data diagnostics. Not EV telemetry, live sales data or streaming analytics.

- Canonical URL: https://mkdata.co.technology/
- Methodology & Equations: https://mkdata.co.technology/methodology/
- Interactive Browser Runtime: https://mkdata.co.technology/run/
- Author & Root Entity: Mohammad Rezwan Khan, PhD (https://mrkhan.co.technology/#person)
- Ecosystem Directory: https://mklab.co.technology/
- Knowledge Graph JSON-LD: https://mkdata.co.technology/knowledge-graph.jsonld

## Governing Mathematical Formulation & Units
- Formula: `b_w = (1 − λ) × mean(V_{d ∈ weekday(w)}) + λ × mean(V_{all}); Backtest MAE = (1/K) Σ_{k=1..K} |V_k − b_{w(k)}|`
- Units: Fuel volume in litres/day (L/day); observation window in days (35 d); backtest window K = 21 days; forecast horizon H = 7 days.

## Reproducible Worked Example
Case 1 (35 observed days, synthetic baseline 600 L/day, zero missing days, 7-day forecast horizon): The weekday-shrunk trailing estimator computes a Daily Baseline of 603.4 L/day with a 21-point held-out Backtest MAE of 62.2 L/day. For 2026-09-05, the point forecast is 557.7 L with heuristic band [448.3 L, 667.0 L].

## Benchmark Table
| Case ID | Observed Days | Missing Pattern | Daily Baseline (L) | Backtest Points | Backtest MAE (L) | Horizon (d) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Case 1 (Complete Series) | 35 | None (0%) | 603.4 | 21 | 62.2 | 7 |
| Case 2 (Every 5th Day Missing) | 28 | 20% periodic gaps | 598.1 | 17 | 74.8 | 7 |
| Case 3 (High Volume Site) | 35 | None (0%) | 1,206.8 | 21 | 124.4 | 14 |

## 5-Domain Core Authority Ecosystem
1. Hub & Authority: https://mrkhan.co.technology/ (Mohammad Rezwan Khan, PhD - BESS QA/QC & Energy R&D)
2. Interactive Course & Twin: https://khanlab.co.technology/ (Datacenter Power Systems & What-If Simulator)
3. Microgrid Research: https://mkgrid.co.technology/ (HelioForge Energy Lab - Hybrid Energy Research)
4. Synthetic Energy Trading: https://mktrade.co.business/ (ZephyrTrade - Wind-Market Synthetic Backtesting)
5. Utility & Tool Suite: https://mklab.co.technology/ (MKLab - 68 Free Browser Engineering & Planning Apps)